Saturday, July 02, 2005

The End of Innovation

I thought the world was past apocalytic predictions like the End of History is coming, but a new study by a physicist at the Pentagon predicts the . The study is based on counting the number of great innovations per billion people. So, the GIPB has gone from a peak of 20, reached in 1800, to a measly 7. If the trend continues, we will back to a medieval pace by 2024. The article from New Scientists also includes a number of objections form prominent scientists, centered around the criteria of a great innovation. Hueber uses a book called the as his reference. I guess we will find if he is right or not, because 2024 is less than 20 years away. For my part, I always wondered why subjects like Physics and Chemistry have seemed to stagnate in modern times.

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